Southern Utah

Conference:	BSky
Expected RPI:	252.0
Current RPI:	252
Expected SOS:	197
Current SOS:	197
Current Record:	11-19
Expected Record:	11-19
Current Conf Record:	7-14
Expected Conf Record:	7-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	4-11
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	7-4
Current OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC Record:	4-5
Expected OOC RPI:	169
Expected OOC SOS:	188

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
11-19	252.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Southern Utah.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Oregon St. (137.0)	P12	A	99-82	L	0%
11-12	Boise St. (50.0)	MWC	A	90-69	L	0%
11-16	San Jose St. (314.0)	MWC	H	81-69	W	100%
11-25	UNLV (134.0)	MWC	A	101-82	L	0%
11-29	Pepperdine (317.0)	WCC	A	82-88	W	100%
12-6	Long Beach St. (191.0)	BW	H	94-89	W	100%
12-9	Michigan St. (14.0)	B10	A	88-63	L	0%
12-16	Central Michigan (167.0)	MAC	H	86-80	W	100%
12-19	Iowa (157.0)	B10	A	92-64	L	0%
12-28	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	H	99-104	L	0%
12-30	Montana (76.0)	BSky	H	49-79	L	0%
1-4	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	A	93-78	L	0%
1-6	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	A	92-76	L	0%
1-13	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	H	81-75	W	100%
1-18	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	H	76-80	L	0%
1-20	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	H	66-62	W	100%
1-25	Montana (76.0)	BSky	A	71-47	L	0%
1-27	Montana St. (283.0)	BSky	A	69-66	L	0%
2-1	Weber St. (162.0)	BSky	H	80-90	L	0%
2-3	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	H	84-80	W	100%
2-10	Northern Arizona (310.0)	BSky	A	54-63	W	100%
2-15	North Dakota (221.0)	BSky	A	61-57	L	0%
2-17	Northern Colorado (110.0)	BSky	A	97-80	L	0%
2-22	Portland St. (170.0)	BSky	H	91-96	L	0%
2-24	Sacramento St. (309.0)	BSky	H	77-74	W	100%
3-1	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	A	74-51	L	0%
3-3	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	A	78-76	L	0%
3-6	Idaho St. (268.0)	BSky	N	68-76	W	100%
3-8	Idaho (133.0)	BSky	N	78-92	W	100%
3-9	Eastern Washington (122.0)	BSky	N	82-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Southern Utah's RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Southern Utah's winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Southern Utah.

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Southern Utah	BSky	26.56	26.56	36.29	36.29	-7.28	-7.28
Eastern Washington	BSky	5.87	5.87	55.17	55.17	0.61	0.61
Idaho St.	BSky	5.75	5.75	44.00	44.00	-0.69	-0.69
Idaho	BSky	5.75	5.75	69.23	69.23	2.21	2.21
Northern Arizona	BSky	4.32	4.32	14.29	14.29	-3.08	-3.08
Montana	BSky	4.22	4.22	75.86	75.86	2.18	2.18
Weber St.	BSky	4.17	4.17	57.69	57.69	0.64	0.64
Montana St.	BSky	4.14	4.14	32.14	32.14	-1.48	-1.48
Northern Colorado	BSky	2.90	2.90	60.00	60.00	0.58	0.58
North Dakota	BSky	2.79	2.79	31.03	31.03	-1.06	-1.06
Portland St.	BSky	2.78	2.78	55.17	55.17	0.29	0.29
Sacramento St.	BSky	2.73	2.73	17.24	17.24	-1.79	-1.79
UNLV	MWC	1.88	1.88	59.38	59.38	0.35	0.35
San Jose St.	MWC	1.83	1.83	10.71	10.71	-1.44	-1.44
Pepperdine	WCC	1.78	1.78	16.67	16.67	-1.19	-1.19
Boise St.	MWC	1.77	1.77	72.41	72.41	0.80	0.80
Long Beach St.	BW	1.77	1.77	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Central Michigan	MAC	1.72	1.72	55.17	55.17	0.18	0.18
Oregon St.	P12	1.72	1.72	48.39	48.39	-0.06	-0.06
Michigan St.	B10	1.72	1.72	87.50	87.50	1.29	1.29
Iowa	B10	1.69	1.69	40.62	40.62	-0.32	-0.32
Cal St. Northridge	BW	0.39	0.39	14.29	14.29	-0.28	-0.28
Utah St.	MWC	0.33	0.33	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.30	0.30	59.38	59.38	0.06	0.06
Santa Clara	WCC	0.28	0.28	34.48	34.48	-0.09	-0.09
Nevada	MWC	0.27	0.27	79.41	79.41	0.16	0.16
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	0.26	0.26	33.33	33.33	-0.09	-0.09
UC Irvine	BW	0.25	0.25	48.48	48.48	-0.01	-0.01
Fresno St.	MWC	0.25	0.25	63.33	63.33	0.07	0.07
Washington St.	P12	0.23	0.23	38.71	38.71	-0.05	-0.05
UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.22	0.22	70.00	70.00	0.09	0.09
Stanford	P12	0.21	0.21	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
Washington	P12	0.21	0.21	62.50	62.50	0.05	0.05
BYU	WCC	0.20	0.20	70.59	70.59	0.08	0.08
Arizona St.	P12	0.20	0.20	64.52	64.52	0.06	0.06
Cal Poly	BW	0.19	0.19	24.14	24.14	-0.10	-0.10
Colorado St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	32.26	32.26	-0.07	-0.07
San Diego St.	MWC	0.19	0.19	67.74	67.74	0.07	0.07
South Dakota	Sum	0.19	0.19	73.33	73.33	0.09	0.09
Air Force	MWC	0.19	0.19	34.48	34.48	-0.06	-0.06
San Francisco	WCC	0.19	0.19	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Utah Valley	WAC	0.18	0.18	65.52	65.52	0.05	0.05
Seattle	WAC	0.17	0.17	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Portland	WCC	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
New Mexico	MWC	0.16	0.16	54.55	54.55	0.01	0.01
UC Riverside	BW	0.16	0.16	24.14	24.14	-0.08	-0.08
Arizona	P12	0.16	0.16	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Michigan	B10	0.15	0.15	79.41	79.41	0.09	0.09
Western Michigan	MAC	0.14	0.14	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
Loyola Marymount	WCC	0.14	0.14	33.33	33.33	-0.05	-0.05
UC Davis	BW	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
Georgia St.	SB	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Penn St.	B10	0.13	0.13	61.76	61.76	0.03	0.03
Utah	P12	0.13	0.13	63.33	63.33	0.03	0.03
Illinois	B10	0.13	0.13	41.94	41.94	-0.02	-0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.12	0.12	20.00	20.00	-0.07	-0.07
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.11	0.11	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
Arkansas Pine Bluff	SWAC	0.11	0.11	40.00	40.00	-0.02	-0.02
Denver	Sum	0.11	0.11	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.11	0.11	24.14	24.14	-0.06	-0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Oregon	P12	0.11	0.11	64.71	64.71	0.03	0.03
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.11	0.11	28.57	28.57	-0.05	-0.05
Nebraska	B10	0.11	0.11	68.75	68.75	0.04	0.04
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.10	0.10	31.03	31.03	-0.04	-0.04
Indiana	B10	0.10	0.10	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Wisconsin	B10	0.10	0.10	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.09	0.09	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.08	0.08	58.62	58.62	0.01	0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Gonzaga	WCC	0.08	0.08	88.24	88.24	0.06	0.06
Hawaii	BW	0.08	0.08	53.57	53.57	0.01	0.01
Northern Illinois	MAC	0.08	0.08	36.67	36.67	-0.02	-0.02
Pacific	WCC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Colorado	P12	0.08	0.08	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Maryland	B10	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Minnesota	B10	0.08	0.08	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Ohio St.	B10	0.08	0.08	75.00	75.00	0.04	0.04
Rutgers	B10	0.08	0.08	42.42	42.42	-0.01	-0.01
Bradley	MVC	0.06	0.06	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Iona	MAAC	0.06	0.06	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
James Madison	CAA	0.06	0.06	29.03	29.03	-0.02	-0.02
Ball St.	MAC	0.06	0.06	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Binghamton	AE	0.06	0.06	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Buffalo	MAC	0.06	0.06	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Jacksonville	ASun	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Louisiana Tech	CUSA	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Milwaukee	Horz	0.06	0.06	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
North Dakota St.	Sum	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
South Florida	Amer	0.06	0.06	31.25	31.25	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	41.38	41.38	-0.01	-0.01
Toledo	MAC	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
California	P12	0.05	0.05	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Duke	ACC	0.05	0.05	78.79	78.79	0.03	0.03
Iowa St.	B12	0.05	0.05	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.05	0.05	80.00	80.00	0.03	0.03
UCLA	P12	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
Northwestern	B10	0.05	0.05	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Purdue	B10	0.05	0.05	82.35	82.35	0.03	0.03
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
Akron	MAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Butler	BE	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Creighton	BE	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Grand Canyon	WAC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01
Illinois St.	MVC	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Jackson St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.03	0.03	84.38	84.38	0.02	0.02
Miami OH	MAC	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
Saint Joseph's	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
SMU	Amer	0.03	0.03	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Troy	SB	0.03	0.03	45.16	45.16	-0.00	-0.00
UMKC	WAC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
UTEP	CUSA	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Belmont	OVC	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
Missouri	SEC	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Southern Miss	CUSA	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
West Virginia	B12	0.03	0.03	70.59	70.59	0.01	0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Marist	MAAC	0.03	0.03	19.35	19.35	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Louis	A10	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
St. John's	BE	0.03	0.03	46.88	46.88	-0.00	-0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Chicago St.	WAC	0.03	0.03	3.33	3.33	-0.02	-0.02
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.03	0.03	32.35	32.35	-0.01	-0.01
Connecticut	Amer	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.03	0.03	35.48	35.48	-0.01	-0.01
Drake	MVC	0.03	0.03	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.03	0.03	24.24	24.24	-0.01	-0.01
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Houston Baptist	Slnd	0.03	0.03	10.71	10.71	-0.02	-0.02
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	12.50	12.50	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.43	71.43	0.01	0.01
North Florida	ASun	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Northern Iowa	MVC	0.03	0.03	46.67	46.67	-0.00	-0.00
Notre Dame	ACC	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Oakland	Horz	0.03	0.03	57.58	57.58	0.00	0.00
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.03	0.03	45.45	45.45	-0.00	-0.00
Rice	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.24	17.24	-0.02	-0.02
Savannah St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	43.33	43.33	-0.00	-0.00
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Stony Brook	AE	0.03	0.03	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.03	0.03	65.62	65.62	0.01	0.01